Assessment of Central America Regional Climate Outlook Forum maps, 1998-2013

 

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Autores: Alfaro Martínez, Eric J., Hidalgo León, Hugo G., Mora Sandí, Natali Pamela, Pérez Briceño, Paula Marcela, Fallas López, Berny
Formato: artículo original
Fecha de Publicación:2016
Descripción:Starting 1997, the Regional Climate Outlook Forums or RCOFs have taken place in different Latin American countries, as an effort to generate climatic prediction products. “since 2000, the Forum is organized in Central America by the Regional Water Resources Committee (CRRH), which is the technical secretariat of the Central American Integration “System, or “SICA, responsible for the coordination of activities related to weather forecasts, climate, water resources and climate change assessment. “since 2007 and after every RCOF, meetings are being held with different stakeholders in order to study the possible climate impacts on various socio-economic sectors of the Isthmus. In this work, 41 climate prediction maps of precipitation produced by the forums were evaluated. For this purpose, 156 rain gauge stations were used along with 689 and 17158 grid points from TRMM and CHIRP“ data sets respectively. The cumulative seasonal rainfall were also compared with other three perspectives: the outputs of the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT); the prediction based on the persistence of the conditions observed in the previous month of the forum (RCOF); and another one always predicting neutral conditions. The results showed that the RCOFs maps have a value added for decision-makers, as most of the time they shown skilled predictive ability. The prospects based upon the prediction of always-neutral conditions showed the least predictive ability, meaning that making decisions without taking into consideration the climate outlook information is worse than using the RCOF maps. Moreover, the inclusion of objective tools and giving them a more specific weight in the consensus map production could be a factor that increases the predictive ability of the forums.
País:Kérwá
Institución:Universidad de Costa Rica
Repositorio:Kérwá
OAI Identifier:oai:https://www.kerwa.ucr.ac.cr:10669/73447
Acceso en línea:http://cglobal.imn.ac.cr/index.php/publications/revista-topicos-meteorologicos-vol-15-1/
https://hdl.handle.net/10669/73447
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Seasonal climate prediction
Central America
Regional climate outlook forum
551.6 Climatología y estado atmosférico