Risk analysis under Monte Carlo simulation for a beef industrialization project

 

Đã lưu trong:
Chi tiết về thư mục
Tác giả: Paniagua Molina, Javier
Định dạng: artículo
Trạng thái:Versión publicada
Ngày xuất bản:2018
Miêu tả:A risk analysis was carried out using Monte Carlo simulation for a project to establish a slaughtering plant for cattle and pigs in the Northern Zone of Costa Rica. The most sensitive risk variables were the prices of the slaughter tickets and the capacity of the plant for the first 4 years of operation.  The response variables of the simulation model were the NPV and the TIR and both in dynamic scenarios of 1000 simulation runs were very similar to those obtained in the static scenario. The coefficient of variation for the NPV was 24.63% and for the IRR of 9.02%, likewise in no case was there any negative probability of return. The previous risk measures suggest that the project presents an average risk represented by the significant variability in flows, but with no probability of obtaining a negative return. 
Quốc gia:Portal de Revistas TEC
Tổ chức giáo dục:Instituto Tecnológico de Costa Rica
Repositorio:Portal de Revistas TEC
Ngôn ngữ:Español
OAI Identifier:oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/3649
Truy cập trực tuyến:https://revistas.tec.ac.cr/index.php/eagronegocios/article/view/3649
Từ khóa:Risk analysis
Monte Carlo simulation
meat industry
Análisis de riesgo
simulación Monte Carlo
industria de carne