Volatility of inflation and economic growth in Central America
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| Autores: | , |
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| Status: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de Publicación: | 2026 |
| Beskrivelse: | In this paper, the volatility of inflation and economic growth was analyzed for the five Central America countries, using a VARMA-GARCH model in a Bayesian context. For its estimation, the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method was used, assuming normal and Student-t shocks. The results show that uncertainty in inflation generates higher inflation in Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica, which confirms Friedman's hypothesis (1977). Furthermore, it was found that, in all the economies analyzed, the volatility in production growth also influences its behavior, in line with the theory of precautionary savings. Likewise, in four countries, the volatility of economic growth affects inflation, a fact that supports the Phillips curve hypothesis. Finally, no evidence was found that inflation volatility influences economic growth. |
| País: | Portal de Revistas UCR |
| Institution: | Universidad de Costa Rica |
| Repositorio: | Portal de Revistas UCR |
| Sprog: | Español |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:portal.revistas.ucr.ac.cr:article/11089 |
| Online adgang: | https://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/reconomicas/article/view/11089 |
| Palabra clave: | Inflation Economic growth Volatility VARMA-GARCH model Bayesian statistics Hamiltonian Monte Carlo E23 E31 C11 C32 Inflación Crecimiento económico Volatilidad Modelo VARMA-GARCH Estadística bayesiana Monte Carlo hamiltoniano |