A multilayer network model of Covid-19: implications in public health policy in Costa Rica

 

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Sánchez Peña, Fabio Ariel, Calvo Alpízar, Juan Gabriel, Mery Valdovinos, Gustavo Andrés, García Puerta, Yury Elena, Vásquez Brenes, Paola Andrea, Barboza Chinchilla, Luis Alberto, Pérez Rosales, María Dolores, Rivas Chaves, Tania
Formato: artículo preliminar
Fecha de Publicación:2022
Descripción:Successful partnerships between researchers, experts, and public health authorities have been critical to navigate the challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic worldwide. In this collaboration, mathematical models have played a decisive role in informing public policy, with findings effectively translated into public health measures that have shaped the pandemic in Costa Rica. As a result of interdisciplinary and cross-institutional collaboration, we constructed a multilayer network model that incorporates a diverse contact structure for each individual. In July 2020, we used this model to test the effect of lifting restrictions on population mobility after a so-called “epidemiological fence” imposed to contain the country’s first big wave of cases. Later, in August 2020, we used it to predict the effects of an open and close strategy (the Hammer and Dance). Scenarios constructed in July 2020 showed that lifting restrictions on population mobility after less than three weeks of epidemiological fence would produce a sharp increase in cases. Results from scenarios in August 2020 indicated that the Hammer and Dance strategy would only work with 50% of the population adhering to mobility restrictions. The development, evolution, and applications of a multilayer network model of Covid-19 in Costa Rica has guided decision-makers to anticipate implementing sanitary measures and contributed to gain valuable time to increase hospital capacity.
País:Kérwá
Institución:Universidad de Costa Rica
Repositorio:Kérwá
Lenguaje:Inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:kerwa.ucr.ac.cr:10669/86596
Acceso en línea:https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.04218
https://hdl.handle.net/10669/86596
Palabra clave:Network Model
Public Health
Non-pharmaceutical interventions
Computational Model
COVID-19