Future Changes in Simulated Streamflow in Costa Rica from CMIP6 climate models
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| Autores: | , , |
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| Formato: | presentación de congreso |
| Fecha de Publicación: | 2022 |
| Descripción: | Statistically downscaled daily data from an ensemble of five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program 6 (CMIP6) will be used to determine changes (with respect to a baseline historical scenario) in the magnitude of the 20-year return period streamflow for 34 basins covering Costa Rica at horizons corresponding to mid-century and end-of-century. The climate models used were selected according to Almazroui et al. (2021), which proved to have the lower biases in reproducing the region’s climate. The chosen downscaling method corresponds to a delta approach described in Navarro-Racines et al. (2020). The hydrological simulations were computed using the HBV model. The concentration scenario selected for this study is SSP5-8.5, considered a pessimistic scenario. Preliminary results show precipitation increases in the Pacific Slope, however, the increases in actual evapotranspiration due to warming over exceeds the precipitation effects, causing a future reduction in streamflow in basins in the Pacific Slope and reductions in the Northern Caribbean region of Costa Rica. This is important as it suggests that the North Pacific, a climatologically drier region, will experience significant increases in aridity. This region is known to present social and economic vulnerabilities, as it is part of the Central American Dry Corridor. |
| País: | Kérwá |
| Institución: | Universidad de Costa Rica |
| Repositorio: | Kérwá |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:kerwa.ucr.ac.cr:10669/86843 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://www.agu.org/FIHM https://agu.confex.com/agu/hydrology22/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/1032412 https://hdl.handle.net/10669/86843 |
| Palabra clave: | Downscaling Costa Rica Streamflow CLIMATE CHANGE |