A survival analysis of sudden current account correction for Costa Rica
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| Autores: | , |
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| Formato: | artículo original |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de Publicación: | 2016 |
| Descripción: | Using a survival model approach using data panel, an exploratory analysis is made to estimate the probability of a sudden current account correction in Costa Rica. The results show that the estimated probability of a current account reversal decreases when: i) the five years ahead real-growth increases, ii) the external situation of similar countries improves, iii) the economic dependency ratio increases, iv) the world’s GDP percentage for which the country have signed a trade agreement increases, v) reserves accumulation accelerates and vi) the institutional framework becomes more democratic. On the other hand, an increase in the total factor productivity (TFP) growth 5-year ahead raises likelihood of a reversal. The effect of capital controls on the probability showed an ambiguous behavior. Annual data from 1981 to 2012 for 116 countries is used. |
| País: | Portal de Revistas UCR |
| Institución: | Universidad de Costa Rica |
| Repositorio: | Portal de Revistas UCR |
| Lenguaje: | Español |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:portal.ucr.ac.cr:article/27316 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/economicas/article/view/27316 |
| Palabra clave: | SURVIVAL MODEL EXTERNAL BALANCE EMERGING MARKET MODELOS DE SUPERVIVENCIA BALANCE EXTERNO MERCADOS EMERGENTES |