A Gompertz mixture approach for modeling the evolution of the COVID-19 dynamics
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| Auteurs: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | artículo original |
| Statut: | Versión publicada |
| Date de publication: | 2023 |
| Description: | Different countries used the growth Gompertz function at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic to model the number of cumulative infected cases since it provides reasonable results. Such a model allows only one mode, but the pandemic evolution has exhibited a multimodal behavior due to the different waves and variants of the COVID-19 virus. Thus, Gompertz’s classical growth model is not well suited to describe a long pandemic with different virus variants. This work presents generalizations of the Gompertz model that can reproduce a multimodal behavior to model the dynamics of infected cases. The models are applied to COVID-19 data from Nuevo Leon, Mexico. |
| Pays: | Portal de Revistas UCR |
| Institution: | Universidad de Costa Rica |
| Repositorio: | Portal de Revistas UCR |
| Langue: | Inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:portal.ucr.ac.cr:article/50927 |
| Accès en ligne: | https://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/matematica/article/view/50927 |
| Mots-clés: | COVID-19 Gompertz mixture Poisson process Cox process Mezcla de Gompertz Proceso de Poisson Proceso de Cox |