Forecasting Costa Rican Quarterly Growth with Mixed-frequency Models
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| Autor: | |
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| Formato: | artículo original |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de Publicación: | 2014 |
| Descripción: | We assess the utility of mixed-frequency models to forecast the quarterly growth rate of Costa Rican real GDP: we estimate bridge and MiDaS models with several lag lengths using information of the IMAE and compute forecasts (horizons of 0-4 quarters) which are compared between themselves, with those of ARIMA models and with those resulting from forecast combinations. Combining the most accurate forecasts is most useful when forecasting in real time, whereas MiDaS forecasts are the best-performing overall: as the forecasting horizon increases, their precisionis affected relatively little; their success rates in predicting the direction of changes in the growth rate are stable, and several forecastsremain unbiased. In particular, forecasts computed from simple MiDaS with 9 and 12 lags are unbiased at all horizons and information sets assessed, and show the highest number of significant differences in forecasting ability in comparison with all other models. |
| País: | Portal de Revistas UCR |
| Institución: | Universidad de Costa Rica |
| Repositorio: | Portal de Revistas UCR |
| Lenguaje: | Español |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:portal.ucr.ac.cr:article/17267 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/economicas/article/view/17267 |
| Palabra clave: | DATOS DE FRECUENCIA MIXTA MODELOS MIDAS MODELOS BRIDGE PRONÓSTICO EN TIEMPO REAL MIXED -FREQUENCY DATA MIDAS MODELS BRIDGE MODELS NOWCASTING |