Fiscal sustainability in Costa Rica 1991-2013: A Montecarlo Approach
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| Nhiều tác giả: | , |
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| Định dạng: | artículo original |
| Trạng thái: | Versión publicada |
| Ngày xuất bản: | 2014 |
| Miêu tả: | The following document is an application of the fiscal sustainability model for Costa Rican economy. The model uses the methodology of natural debt limit proposed by Mendoza and Oviedo (2009) as well as a set of Montecarlo simulations to estimate the probability of surpassing this limit. The model is a simplification of the one applied by Tanner and Samake (2007) and Fernandez K. (2005). After forecasting a 3 year period a 76.09% probability to exceed the limit of debt was obtained indicating that the economy has a high risk of unsustainable debt, in this context is was proposed, based on the IRF’s, a possible contractive fiscal politic was encountered. |
| Quốc gia: | Portal de Revistas UNA |
| Tổ chức giáo dục: | Universidad Nacional de Costa Rica |
| Repositorio: | Portal de Revistas UNA |
| Ngôn ngữ: | Español |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:www.revistas.una.ac.cr:article/6047 |
| Truy cập trực tuyến: | https://www.revistas.una.ac.cr/index.php/economia/article/view/6047 |
| Từ khóa: | Simulation Montecarlo method Fiscal sustainability. Simulación Método Montecarlo sostenibilidad fiscal |