Inflation forecasts using Bayesian Techniques

 

Guardado en:
Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Chavarría, Juan Diego, Chaverri Morales, Carlos
Formato: artículo original
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de Publicación:2015
Descripción:The effective monetary policy using the inflation targeting scheme proposed by the Central Bank of Costa Rica is mostly based on the correct and timely inflation forecast in the short and medium term, in order to better design monetary policy actions. The purpose of this study is to develop a complementary tool to forecast inflation using a Bayesian approach. To that end, we propose using the Bayesian Model Averaging and Weighted-Average Least Squares methodologies. Such projection models allow expanding and complementing the analysis currently conducted by the Central Bank of Costa Rica using the Quarterly Macroeconomic Projection Model (MQPM). As a result, we show that for monthly data and forecasting 1 to 12 months in advance, it is possible to have projections using the Bayesian process with greater predictive performance than with the autoregressive model.
País:Portal de Revistas UNA
Institución:Universidad Nacional de Costa Rica
Repositorio:Portal de Revistas UNA
Lenguaje:Español
OAI Identifier:oai:ojs.www.una.ac.cr:article/7287
Acceso en línea:https://www.revistas.una.ac.cr/index.php/economia/article/view/7287
Palabra clave:productive development
entrepreneurs
methodology of extensiveness
social vulnerability
Modelos de series temporales
números índice y agregación
predicción y simulación
Análisis bayesiano.